New Seat Details - Ealing Central and Acton

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ealing Central and Acton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	33,344	59.9%
CON	18,821	33.8%
LIB	3,050	5.5%
Green	298	0.5%
UKIP	142	0.3%
OTH	55	0.1%
LAB Majority	14,523	26.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ealing Central and Acton: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ealing Central and Acton

Old seat: Ealing Central and Acton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ealing Central and Acton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ealing Central and Acton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ealing	Acton Central	8,569	Ealing Central and Acton	2,104	4,766	316	0	0	0	0	0	7,186
Ealing	Ealing Broadway	8,975	Ealing Central and Acton	2,817	3,311	372	0	0	0	0	0	6,500
Ealing	Ealing Common	8,752	Ealing Central and Acton	2,478	3,595	459	0	0	0	0	0	6,532
Ealing	East Acton	9,989	Ealing Central and Acton	2,342	6,008	364	0	0	0	0	0	8,714
Ealing	Hanger Hill	8,625	Ealing Central and Acton	3,352	3,567	373	0	0	0	0	0	7,292
Ealing	South Acton	8,399	Ealing Central and Acton	1,902	4,440	280	0	0	0	0	0	6,622
Ealing	Southfield	8,987	Isleworth, Brentford and Chiswick	2,153	3,574	531	0	0	0	0	0	6,258
Ealing	Walpole	8,502	Ealing Central and Acton	2,081	3,776	380	0	0	0	0	0	6,237
	Total	70,798		19,229	33,037	3,075	0	0	0	0	0	55,341

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ealing Central and Acton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ealing Southall

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ealing Southall, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ealing Southall				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ealing	Dormers Wells	9,059	Southall and Heston	1,107	4,779	230	37	79	0	0	29	6,261
Ealing	Elthorne	9,276	Ealing Central and Acton	1,745	3,881	506	142	298	0	0	55	6,627
Ealing	Lady Margaret	9,625	Southall and Heston	1,483	4,637	165	102	106	0	0	34	6,527
Ealing	Northfield	8,575	Isleworth, Brentford and Chiswick	2,259	3,099	497	107	284	0	0	29	6,275
Ealing	Norwood Green	8,974	Southall and Heston	1,325	4,757	165	41	122	0	0	58	6,468
Ealing	Southall Broadway	9,353	Southall and Heston	825	5,013	152	36	74	0	0	124	6,224
Ealing	Southall Green	9,613	Southall and Heston	885	5,555	177	39	73	0	0	34	6,763
	Total	64,475		9,629	31,721	1,892	504	1,036	0	0	363	45,145

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ealing Southall seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ealing Central and Acton

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ealing Central and Acton
Ealing	Acton Central	9,635	Ealing Central and Acton	2,104	4,766	316	0	0	0	0	0	7,186
Ealing	Ealing Broadway	8,714	Ealing Central and Acton	2,817	3,311	372	0	0	0	0	0	6,500
Ealing	Ealing Common	8,757	Ealing Central and Acton	2,478	3,595	459	0	0	0	0	0	6,532
Ealing	East Acton	11,684	Ealing Central and Acton	2,342	6,008	364	0	0	0	0	0	8,714
Ealing	Elthorne	9,569	Ealing Southall	1,745	3,881	506	142	298	0	0	55	6,627
Ealing	Hanger Hill	9,776	Ealing Central and Acton	3,352	3,567	373	0	0	0	0	0	7,292
Ealing	South Acton	8,880	Ealing Central and Acton	1,902	4,440	280	0	0	0	0	0	6,622
Ealing	Walpole	8,363	Ealing Central and Acton	2,081	3,776	380	0	0	0	0	0	6,237
	Total	75,378		18,821	33,344	3,050	142	298	0	0	55	55,710

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ealing Central and Acton. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Rupa Huq (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	75,378
Turnout:	73.9%

Ealing Central and Acton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ealing Central and Acton: Overview

Introduction